暴跌背后:V神公开解释原因,但ETH或难逃崩溃命运

暴跌元凶竟是1CO项目套现?正如上面提到的原因之一,不少项目方开始出手融资获得的ETH来换取现金,以维持项目的正常运行或者套现离场。这种情况在市场下行的情况下越发严重。近日,分析师VijayBoyapati在Twitter发布的12条推

  暴跌元凶竟是 1CO 项目套现?正如上面提到的原因之一,不少项目方开始出手融资获得的 ETH 来换取现金,以维持项目的正常运行或者套现离场。这种情况在市场下行的情况下越发严重。近日,分析师 Vijay Boyapati 在 Twitter 发布的 12 条推特,提出了目前以太坊 ETH 价格崩溃与 1CO 项目方抛售 ETH 换取现金有直接关系,并表示 1CO 项目正在不断死亡,诈骗 1CO 项目套现后导致 ETH 价格暴跌。1/ #Ethereum is crashing (not just in USD terms but in BTC terms); has the demand for a decentralized world computer disappeared, or is something else at play? Let’s consider the fundamentals from an economic point of view.1、以太坊 ETH 价格正在崩溃;是市场对去中心化世界计算机的需求消失了吗,还是有人在做空以太坊?今天我们从经济学的角度来思考一下以太坊价值的根基。2/ The price level of all monetary goods is determined by (and only by) reservation demand. More precisely, the duration that the average unit of the monetary good is held in reserve.2、所有有价物品的价格水平是由且只由「保留需求(reservation deman)」决定。更准确地来讲,每一等份有价物品的价格是由其储量决定的。3/ At one extreme you have a good like gold that is stored in vaults in perpetuity because of a widely held belief that it will retain its value long into the future.Gold has a very high reservation demand which is why it has a market cap of over seven trillion dollars.3、举一个极端的例子,人们为什么会选择地下室里存储黄金,是因为大家都认为未来黄金会保持其价值。黄金的「保留需求」非常高,目前整个黄金市场的市值达到了 7 万亿美元。4/ At the other extreme you have monies like the Venezuelan peso that is treated like a hot potato. If you receive it in exchange, it becomes imperative to relinquish it post haste lest its value slip away like sand through your fingers.The peso has low reservation demand.4、另外一个极端的例子是委内瑞拉国的货币玻利瓦尔,人们现在都不希望持有玻利瓦尔。如果你在交易中接收了一些玻利瓦尔,你肯定会急切地想将这些玻利瓦尔出手,多留一会,就多贬值一些。所以,市场对玻利瓦尔的「保留需求」很低。5/ The investment case for Ethereum (#ETH) is that it will become the most liquid token in a digital economy built atop of a Turing-complete decentralized computer that can execute smart contracts. But how do these contracts affect reservation demand?5、在以太坊代币 ETH 的投资案例中,这个图灵完备的去中心化全球计算机中可以执行智能合约,使其代币 ETH 成为最具流动性的通用货币。那么,这些智能合约会影响到 ETH 的「保留需求」吗?6/ For the most part smart contracts have no affect whatsoever on reservation demand, just as transactional use on Bitcoin plays little-to-no role in reservation demand for it. The primary source of reservation demand is the removal of currency from the order book of exchanges.6、在绝大多数情况下,智能合约对保留需求的影响几乎为零,就好比用比特币来进行转账交易一样,人们使用比特币看重的不是它的转账功能,而是「保留需求」。人们对于保留需求的首要原因是希望在交易所交易的时候不使用现金。7/ There is, however, one particular kind of smart contract that has increased reservation demand for ETH: contracts used for 1COs. These contracts lock up supply as ETH is held in reserve by companies raising capital to fund operations.7、不过呢,还有一种特殊的情况会让智能合约增加对 ETH 的保留需求:使用以太坊智能合约来 ICO 发币。这些智能合约使用 ETH 来进行募资和公司运作。8/ ETH held in 1COs increases reservation demand at the time the capital is raised, but lowers it as the ETH is sold on exchanges to provide funding for operations.8、随着 1CO 募资的增加,项目方对 ETH 保留需求开始增加,但是如果项目方将 ETH 在交易所卖掉换取项目运营经费的话,ETH 的保留需求就开始下降。9/ In a bull market companies that have raised ETH may sit on it (increasing reservation demand) in hopes of extending their runway with the rising value of ETH. In a bear market companies will want to dump their ETH as fast as possible, hoping not to be last in line.9、在牛市阶段,区块链创业项目融资 ETH 后拿住就可以了,他们持有的 ETH 未来会有很好升值空间。但是在熊市里,区块链项目团队开始抛售手中的 ETH 来换取现金,并且希望自己不是最后一个抛售的。10/ The most powerful reason for the crash in ETH is that the 1CO market is now largely dead (it being apparent that almost all ICOs were complete scams), and those that did raise capital are trying to liquidate their ETH before their product runway vanishes before their eyes.10、关于 ETH 价格崩溃最有力的证明就是目前 ICO 市场在很大程度上已经死亡(目前可以看到的是几乎所有 ICO 都是骗局),而那些已经募资 ETH 的项目也在试图清掉 ETH 跑路,即便他们还没有按照路线图开发出现产品。11/ #Bitcoin on the other hand does not face the same problem because its primary use case is as a non-sovereign store of value. I.e., the primary use case is HODLing – which is pure unalloyed reservation demand – and this will continue for a long time: until we see full adoption11、另一方面来讲,比特币并没有遇到这样的问题,因为比特币的首要使用目的是一种无国界的价值存储,比如买来避险、升值等,是一种纯粹的保留需求,而这种需求的持续时间会很久,直到我们能看到全民都使用比特币。12/ Addendum: Here is a list of companies that have raised 1CO funding in ETH: If one or two large holders sell their ETH to protect their product runway, it will trigger a stampede. The bottom is not in.12、Dapp Capitulation 网站展示了项目方钱包里资产的流出情况。

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